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Total return in the call's direction across recent tracked long and short calls.
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The analyst believes that stress signals in the Canadian dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate and currency futures hitting a floor just before the July Fed meeting confirmed an intraday low in S&P 500 futures, and that despite worries about thin market liquidity, prices are still tracking toward record highs.
The idea is that 10-year Treasury futures have found a floor, with pricing in the futures market pointing to the July Fed meeting as the turning point that marked the low, making bonds worth buying from here.
The analyst sees oil forming a classic reversal pattern at a key price ceiling — where it failed to break higher twice — and is using that as confirmation to bet against crude.