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Total return in the call's direction across recent tracked long and short calls.
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Because China can't freely invest its massive trade surplus abroad, roughly $1 trillion in export earnings gets funneled into US assets by structural necessity every year, and that steady stream of forced buying is a core reason S&P 500 valuations have stayed high — not just optimism.
The thesis here is that gold isn't just rising because the dollar is weakening — it's rising because tariff tensions are threatening the global system countries use to settle trade with each other, and as long as that system feels unstable, governments and institutions will keep holding gold as a neutral fallback, which is why the price is unlikely to fall back to $3,000.
Capital Flows is betting that if China moves on Taiwan, NVIDIA's stock would collapse instantly since TSMC — the only manufacturer capable of making its chips — sits right in the crossfire, and they plan to use the new NVIDIA single-stock futures launching on CME in late July as the vehicle for that disaster hedge.