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Total return in the call's direction across recent tracked long and short calls.
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Micron looks cheap on paper — trading at a low price relative to expected profits with a ton of cash on hand — but the real question is whether today's strong profits are the new normal thanks to AI demand, or just a temporary boom that will fade as chipmakers ramp up supply and prices fall back to earth.
If AI doesn't actually deliver the massive productivity boost everyone is hoping for, the U.S. government's debt load will keep ballooning to the point where investors demand much higher interest rates to keep lending to Washington, which would crush the value of long-term Treasury bonds — so this is a bet against TLT unless an AI productivity miracle actually materializes.
Buying long-term US government bonds right now is essentially a bet that AI delivers a big enough economic productivity boost to shrink the federal deficit and debt load, which would push interest rates down and make those bonds more valuable.