BTC
LONG
Crypto is a momentum asset where technical analysis works well; buying breakouts above all-time highs has a high hit rate due to retail-driven, momentum-driven price action.
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SPY
SHORT
S&P 500 is at historically extreme valuations (record low dividend yields, Shiller CAPE far above historical average). Multiple tailwinds (deficit spending, buybacks, passive inflows) are unsustainable; a 60% crash to ~3,000 is plausible when they reverse.
QQQ
SHORT
The NASDAQ has risen ~20x since 2009, mirroring dotcom-era excess. AI may change the world but, like the internet, returns will accrue to users not providers, and the index could suffer a severe multi-year drawdown similar to the 76% decline from 2000–2002.