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If AI doesn't actually deliver the massive productivity boost everyone is hoping for, the U.S. government's debt load will keep ballooning to the point where investors demand much higher interest rates to keep lending to Washington, which would crush the value of long-term Treasury bonds — so this is a bet against TLT unless an AI productivity miracle actually materializes.
Buying long-term US government bonds right now is essentially a bet that AI delivers a big enough economic productivity boost to shrink the federal deficit and debt load, which would push interest rates down and make those bonds more valuable.
Sven Carlin argues gold is worth buying now because the same high interest rates that briefly made bonds look more attractive are likely to trigger a recession or force the Fed to cut rates, and with US government debt at crisis levels, that reversal could send gold from roughly $4,000 today all the way to $6,000–$10,000.