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Total return in the call's direction across recent tracked long and short calls.
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The bet against Anthropic is that its $60B+ valuation is wildly inflated because open-source AI models are catching up fast, which will strip away its pricing power and push the real money toward the companies actually building products and infrastructure on top of AI — leaving Anthropic's current price tag impossible to justify unless regulators step in to shield it.
As AI models themselves become more interchangeable and less profitable, the real money flows to the companies building the underlying hardware that every model needs to run, and Nvidia wins no matter which AI lab comes out on top.
If the US bans open-source AI, American companies like Coca-Cola would be forced to pay far more for AI tools than foreign rivals who can still use free models, squeezing profits enough to make the stock worth less than it is today.