The Overshoot thinks the U.S.-Iran conflict and the threat of disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will push crude prices from around $70 to $90 a barrel, and since supply shocks like this historically get resolved by prices rising rather than people using less oil, USO — which tracks oil prices — is a buy.
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The Overshoot thinks gold is a buy because simmering geopolitical tensions, inflation that has stubbornly settled 1–1.5 percentage points higher than it used to run before COVID, and central banks' unwillingness to raise rates aggressively enough to truly crush it all point to prices rising faster — exactly the kind of world where gold historically does well.
The source expects inflation to pick back up in the second half of 2026 — driven by stubborn wage growth and potential oil supply disruptions in the Middle East — which would make Treasury bonds that automatically adjust for inflation a better bet than regular fixed-rate Treasuries, hence the buy on TIP.